Why Draws Are So Hard to Predict

The crowd under-calls draws

Over our first three gameweeks, 33% of Premier League fixtures we scored ended in a draw - one in three games. But only 26.7% of all Predicts10 predictions actually called a draw. Players are backing a winner more often than the league itself produces one.

That gap shows up in the results: when a fixture actually finished level, Predicts10 players only called it correctly 29.2% of the time. Compare that to 50.8% accuracy on fixtures that had a genuine winner. Draws aren't just less common to predict - once one actually happens, they're substantially harder to have called.

Why this happens

Part of it is psychological - picking a winner feels like a more engaged, "real" prediction than settling for a level scoreline, so a draw can feel like the unsatisfying default rather than an active call. Part of it is genuinely harder maths: there are far more plausible winning scorelines at low goal counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1...) than there are plausible draws (0-0, 1-1, 2-2), so even players who suspect a tight game will often round toward picking a narrow winner instead.

Where this matters most: the tiebreak

If you finish level with another player on points, correctly-called draws are one of the tiebreakers that separate you (see How It Works for the full order). Given how rarely the crowd gets draws right, being one of the players who correctly called a level result is a genuinely rare edge - not just a consolation 3 points.

It's also often exactly where upsets hide. When the crowd is heavily backing a favourite to win and the game finishes level instead, that's an upset by our own definition - and correctly-called upsets are another tiebreaker further down the list. A draw you called that nobody else saw coming is worth more than it looks on the scoreboard.